The Impossibility of Rapid Energy Transitions

Understanding energy system inertia and momentum is key to judging whether a rapid transition toward any type of energy is feasible.

I am tonight setting a clear goal for the energy policy of the United States. Beginning this moment, this Nation will never use more foreign oil than we did in 1977 — never. From now on, every new addition to our demand for energy will be met from our own production and our own conservation. The generation-long growth in our dependence on foreign oil will be stopped dead in its tracks right now and then reversed as we move through the 1980s, for I am tonight setting the further goal of cutting our dependence on foreign oil by one-half by the end of the next decade — a saving of over 4 1/2 million barrels of imported oil per day.—Jimmy Carter
Politicians are fond of promising rapid energy transitions. Whether it is a transition from imported to domestic oil or from coal-powered electricity production to natural-gas power plants, politicians love to make grandiose claims. Unfortunately for them (and often the taxpayers), our energy systems are a bit like an aircraft carrier: they’re unbelievably expensive, they’re built to last for a very long time, they have a huge amount of inertia (meaning it takes a lot of energy to set them moving), and they have a lot of momentum once they’re set in motion. No matter how hard you try, you can’t turn something that large on a dime, or even a few thousand dimes.

Read more: http://www.american.com/archive/2012/december/the-impossibility-of-rapid-energy-transitions