The Complicated U.S. Employment Picture

The number of persons employed full time in May rose by 635,000, not seasonally manipulated (from the household survey). That compares with a gain of 774,000 in April 2011.  The average gain in May for the previous 10 years was 797,000. This May’s increase came on the heels of a very poor April which appeared to be a giveback of some of the record gains in March. The March gain of 1.33 million was a record since 2002, and it was multiples of the typical March gain of 289,000. Taking the 3 months from March through May to filter out the weather related gyrations, this year’s gain of 2.05 million was significantly stronger than 2011′s gain of 1.9 million and was well above the prior 10 year average of 1.76 million.
In other words, these numbers were much better than the “sky is falling” headline seasonally adjusted numbers that everyone was moaning and groaning about on Friday. Any time you see that much hysteria over a single data point, it’s usually a good idea to be highly skeptical. Not that any of this has anything to do with stock prices. They may continue lower, but the employment data is not the reason. Fear of the unknown is.My focus is on full time rather than total employment. Part time jobs are nice, and for many that hold them, they are a lifeline, but the important metric here is full time jobs. Without those, we’re dead. Total employment grew far more than full time jobs, as has been the case throughout this “recovery.”

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