The article discusses the likelihood of a ceasefire in Ukraine, suggesting that it may require territorial concessions from Ukraine. These concessions could then lead to new elections that would legitimize further peace negotiations.
1. Ceasefire Requirements:
A ceasefire is seen as essential for peace. For Russia to agree, Ukraine might have to make territorial concessions.
2. Elections Consideration:
Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, expressed a desire for Ukrainian elections. However, Ukrainian law prevents elections during martial law, which can only be lifted with a ceasefire.
3. Putin's Terms:
Putin stated that hostilities would freeze if Ukraine withdraws from claimed territories and abandons NATO aspirations. Negotiations should be held with the parliamentary speaker rather than President Zelensky, whose term Putin claims has expired.
4. Zelensky's Position:
Zelensky expressed interest in talks but believes Russia does not want a ceasefire. He also stated that a prohibition on talks applies to everyone except himself.
5. Trump's Discussions:
Trump noted ongoing discussions about ending the war, hinting at diplomatic efforts primarily at the embassy level, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rybakov confirming no progress on leader calls.
6. Possible Proposal Elements:
Trump may propose:
• Ukraine withdraws from Kursk and Donbass but retains control elsewhere.
• Both sides maintain their territorial claims.
• Enforce compliance with a carrot-and-stick approach.
• Conduct elections in Ukraine thereafter.
• New leadership enters peace talks with Russia.
7. Coercive Measures:
Ukraine could be compelled to agree through threats to withhold military aid and imposing sanctions on Russian allies, specifically targeting energy clients in China and India.
8. Incentives for Compliance:
For Russia, the US might demilitarize the “trans-Dnieper” region and allow resumed gas imports to the EU from Russia as part of the negotiations.
9. Consequences of Elections:
The US may prefer that Zelensky not seek re-election, potentially supporting another candidate to facilitate a peace deal, given Putin's desire to see him replaced.
10. Trust-Building Measures:
Reduced military forces in Ukraine could be used as a trust-building step before elections and negotiations.
The path to peace involves both territory concessions from Ukraine and new elections to lay the groundwork for effective negotiations with Russia. Trump's plan suggests a delicate balance of pressure and incentives that could pave the way for a ceasefire, establishing a most viable approach to ending the conflict diplomatically.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/territorial-concessions-might-precede
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