There Is A Growing Number Of Worrying Parallels Between 1914, 1939 And 2023

 Some external modelling shows unemployment could leap past 2008 highs, GDP drop 10%, and inflation return to over 10%. However, the far, far greater likelihood is that everyone knows that, and after much huffing and puffing, enough Republicans back a Democrat measure to kick the can down the road. That's not true in terms of the global picture which should worry you far more as a result.

In 2016's 'Thin Ice', I stressed how the neoliberal global order collapsed twice, in 1914 and 1939.

How many of the "Morally-burdened" people working in central banks, or writing about them, have a grasp of geopolitics or strategic studies - and how long can that last if Wolf is correct in his gloomy assessment of US-China relations? Equally, how many in central banks, or writing about them, have ever been truly cold or hungry; struggled to find work; been paid weekly, or on a zero-hours contract; drawn state benefits; or slept on the streets? As such, how many of them understand the risks of a destabilising 1920's-style internal conflict?

"A human being is primarily a bag for putting food into; the other functions and faculties may be more godlike, but in point of time they come afterwards. A man dies and is buried, and all his words and actions are forgotten, but the food he has eaten lives after him in the sound or rotten bones of his children. I think it could be plausibly argued that changes of diet are more important than changes of dynasty or even of religion."

"The educated man pictures a horde of submen, wanting only a day's liberty to loot his house, burn his books, and set him to work minding a machine or sweeping out a lavatory. 'Anything,' he thinks, 'any injustice, sooner than let that mob loose.' He does not see that since there is no difference between the mass of rich and poor, there is no question of setting the mob loose. The mob is in fact loose now, and -in the shape of rich men- is using its power to set up enormous treadmills of boredom, such as 'smart' hotels."

New Zealand saw another huge increase in its trade deficit as imports leaped far more than exports.

Will the RBA give its workers another shove, or wait for 300,000 new arrivals to stop wage growth for it? The Terrible Twenties loom either way, with a vast country with a small population seeing vast house prices and rent increases.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/there-are-growing-parallels-between-1914-1939-and-2023