Thursday, July 7, 2022

Russia-Ukraine war: How the West got it wrong

Liberal democracies were betting on Russia's collapse. So far, those bets have not paid off

  • The US and its Nato allies deservedly won the Cold War, and the western values of democracy, freedom, human rights, rule of law and market economy prevailed over the Soviet Union’s communist totalitarian system.
  • Germany was reunified and the Warsaw Pact dissolved; not a single shot was fired. The world truly seemed to be headed towards an era of optimism, progress and prosperity.

Uninspiring leadership

  • US President Joe Biden is attempting to save his country from itself
  • President Emmanuel Macron often has the right insights and always attempts to offer a vision, but he is alone in Europe, and weakened in his own country following an inconclusive election
  • Former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi leads Italy, but considering the economic clouds that are gathering, he could become the country's next insolvency liquidator

Misleading rhetoric

  • The Biden administration frames tensions with Russia and China as an epic confrontation between democracy and autocracy. It is not - and not even western public opinion adheres to this mantra.
  • Russian aggression towards Ukraine is now largely used as a scapegoat for the ongoing global economic turmoil, but this thesis does not hold up to a sound economic analysis.

Prepare for the pitchforks

  • In Germany, the biggest European economy, the city of Hamburg is reportedly mulling hot-water rationing, and for the first time since 1991, the country has registered a monthly trade deficit
  • Meanwhile, JP Morgan's worst-case scenario for oil prices is a "stratospheric" $380 a barrel if US and European penalties prompt Russia to retaliate with further output cuts
  • What economists call a "soft landing" of the world economy appears increasingly out of reach

 

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-how-west-got-it-wrong 

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