Taking a step back, for most of 2021 the uncertainty surrounding Russian has has been largely focused on the timing and impact of the upcoming NS2 pipeline, which remains unclear owing to limited visible pipeline spare capacity that would take NS2 flows further west into NW Europe.
Looking at the historical pattern of flows, one can point to a couple of notable changes: one more structural, and the other much more recent and "Unexplained": indeed, for most of the summer, Russian gas flows to NW Europe sustained relatively high levels, near the highs of 2018 across all three delivery routes, namely, Nord Stream, flows through Poland via the Yamal pipeline, and flows through the Ukraine.
As Goldman notes, what has kept net Russian flows to NW Europe more than 30 mcm/d down from the 2018 highs has primarily been the high re-exports from Germany towards the Czech Republic.
Up until August, it was hard to argue that Russian flows were squeezing European gas markets.
At the same time Russian government officials have suggested that Russia could quickly resolve the ongoing tightness in European gas markets with the start-up of NS2. Additionally, the restricted spot flows, accompanied by repeated statements by Gazprom that all of their contractual obligations are being met, could work as an incentive for consumers to enter incremental long-term agreements with Gazprom according to GS, much like the new agreement just announced with Hungary.
Importantly, even assuming this lower pipeline flow is not extended beyond October, there is the risk that, given Gazprom's exceptionally low inventory levels in NW Europe as shown in chart 6 above, the company would not be able to meet its contractual obligations during the winter simply from maximizing flows on existing pipelines into Europe.
Russian government officials have "Suggested" this squeeze of the market can potentially be "Resolved quickly" with the start-up of NS2 allowing for a rapid increase in Russian flows to Europe.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/just-how-reliant-europe-russian-gas
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