One of the points raised by critics of two recent California studies that estimated a surprisingly low fatality rate for COVID-19 can be summarized in four words: What about New York? If just 0.1 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus can be expected to die from the disease, as the low end of the range indicated by antibody tests in Santa Clara County and Los Angeles County suggests, the current death toll in New York City would imply that more than 100 percent of the population has been infected.
The current crude case fatality rate in New York City-confirmed deaths as a share of confirmed cases-is more than 7 percent.
New York state accounts for nearly a third of COVID-19 deaths in the United States, and New York City by itself accounts for a fifth.
Assuming the sample is representative, the results suggest that something like 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected, which in turn implies a statewide infection fatality rate in the neighborhood of 0.6 percent-three times the upper estimate from the California studies.
In New York City, he said, about four weeks elapsed between the estimated introduction of the virus and the stay-at-home order.
It may turn out that New York City not only has more infections per capita than other jurisdictions but also has a higher infection fatality rate, which would be consistent with Cuomo's numbers and the city's relatively high crude CFR. Rutherford thinks a stressed health care system may help explain that difference.
New York City's experience with COVID-19 could mean that the IFR estimates from the California studies are wildly off.
https://reason.com/2020/04/23/what-explains-the-difference-between-estimated-covid-19-fatality-rates-in-new-york-and-california/
The current crude case fatality rate in New York City-confirmed deaths as a share of confirmed cases-is more than 7 percent.
New York state accounts for nearly a third of COVID-19 deaths in the United States, and New York City by itself accounts for a fifth.
Assuming the sample is representative, the results suggest that something like 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected, which in turn implies a statewide infection fatality rate in the neighborhood of 0.6 percent-three times the upper estimate from the California studies.
In New York City, he said, about four weeks elapsed between the estimated introduction of the virus and the stay-at-home order.
It may turn out that New York City not only has more infections per capita than other jurisdictions but also has a higher infection fatality rate, which would be consistent with Cuomo's numbers and the city's relatively high crude CFR. Rutherford thinks a stressed health care system may help explain that difference.
New York City's experience with COVID-19 could mean that the IFR estimates from the California studies are wildly off.
https://reason.com/2020/04/23/what-explains-the-difference-between-estimated-covid-19-fatality-rates-in-new-york-and-california/
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