So where is a nation-state in 2020 going to start with this transition? Let's start with the specific multilateral framework on trade: the World Trade Organization.
It's also worth noting that many other supposedly sacrosanct rules embedded in recent trade agreements have little to do with actual trade.
Today's trade and manufacturing disruptions are not unique to COVID-19.
"The current pandemic is not the only black swan event of the last 15 years. Arguably there have been several-including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2011 Tohoku East Japan earthquake and tsunami, the flooding in Thailand, and the U.S.-China trade war." They may be forgotten now, but in the midst of each of those crises were many reports about critical supply shortages.
What these disruptions do illustrate is that a country that has a deeply embedded manufacturing sector can promptly shift production priorities to alleviate shortages better than a country whose limited manufacturing capability is held hostage to the provision of offshore specialists.
Even assuming a new trade framework that facilitates local content requirements and other measures to enhance the revitalization of manufacturing in developed economies, these countries will also have to embrace a higher degree of automation in the workforce.
Free trade theologians will no doubt rebel, but the virtue of this idea is that it reduces the incentive for mercantilism precisely because LCRs make it impossible to drive your trading partner out of a desired industry by dumping.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/how-to-change-the-rules-of-trade-to-bring-manufacturing-home/
It's also worth noting that many other supposedly sacrosanct rules embedded in recent trade agreements have little to do with actual trade.
Today's trade and manufacturing disruptions are not unique to COVID-19.
"The current pandemic is not the only black swan event of the last 15 years. Arguably there have been several-including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2011 Tohoku East Japan earthquake and tsunami, the flooding in Thailand, and the U.S.-China trade war." They may be forgotten now, but in the midst of each of those crises were many reports about critical supply shortages.
What these disruptions do illustrate is that a country that has a deeply embedded manufacturing sector can promptly shift production priorities to alleviate shortages better than a country whose limited manufacturing capability is held hostage to the provision of offshore specialists.
Even assuming a new trade framework that facilitates local content requirements and other measures to enhance the revitalization of manufacturing in developed economies, these countries will also have to embrace a higher degree of automation in the workforce.
Free trade theologians will no doubt rebel, but the virtue of this idea is that it reduces the incentive for mercantilism precisely because LCRs make it impossible to drive your trading partner out of a desired industry by dumping.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/how-to-change-the-rules-of-trade-to-bring-manufacturing-home/
No comments:
Post a Comment