Preliminary results from antibody tests in Los Angeles County indicate that the true number of COVID-19 infections is much higher than the number of confirmed cases there, which implies that the fatality rate is much lower than the official tallies suggest.
In contrast with the current crude case fatality rate of about 4.5 percent, she said, the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu.
Based on a representative sample of 863 adults tested early this month, researchers at the University of Southern California, working in collaboration with the public health department, found that "Approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus." Taking into account the statistical margin of error, the results indicate that "2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus-which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection." That is 28 to 55 times higher than the tally of confirmed cases at the time of the study.
As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent.
"The fatality rate is lower than we thought it would be," said Neeraj Sood, the USC public policy professor who oversaw the study.
Sood addressed two of the methodological concerns that were raised by a recent study of Santa Clara County residents, which likewise estimated that the COVID-19 fatality rate is not far from the rate for the flu.
While Ferrer portrayed the study as proof of the need for aggressive control measures, a fatality rate as low as the Los Angeles County and Santa Clara County tests suggest also changes the calculus of those policies' costs and benefits.
https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/
In contrast with the current crude case fatality rate of about 4.5 percent, she said, the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu.
Based on a representative sample of 863 adults tested early this month, researchers at the University of Southern California, working in collaboration with the public health department, found that "Approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus." Taking into account the statistical margin of error, the results indicate that "2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus-which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection." That is 28 to 55 times higher than the tally of confirmed cases at the time of the study.
As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent.
"The fatality rate is lower than we thought it would be," said Neeraj Sood, the USC public policy professor who oversaw the study.
Sood addressed two of the methodological concerns that were raised by a recent study of Santa Clara County residents, which likewise estimated that the COVID-19 fatality rate is not far from the rate for the flu.
While Ferrer portrayed the study as proof of the need for aggressive control measures, a fatality rate as low as the Los Angeles County and Santa Clara County tests suggest also changes the calculus of those policies' costs and benefits.
https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/
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