While the Clinton and Trump impeachment efforts differ dramatically on the politics and allegations involved, one similarity offers tantalizing parallels that could predict how the public reacts to the current investigation.
Unlike the Nixon impeachment inquiry in 1973-74, the Clinton and Trump impeachment drives evoked an overwhelmingly strong partisan reaction.
By the time the Senate acquitted him on Feb. 12, 1999, his job approval was still a robust 65%. Republicans were convinced the impeachment spotlight shone on Mr. Clinton's behavior would change public opinion against him.
Instead, Mr. Clinton's job approval rating seemed to drive public disapproval of the impeachment proceedings.
At the end of the saga Mr. Clinton's job approval was 65% vs. 33% disapproval; opposition to impeachment was also 65% while support was 33%. What can that tell us about the likely course of support for President Trump's impeachment? According to the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, Mr. Trump's current job approval is 44%, with his disapproval at 54%. To the extent that the Clinton example is any guide, popular support for Mr. Trump's impeachment will end up in the mid-50s, with opposition settling in the mid-40s. Those numbers will likely vary dramatically among the states, as they do now.
He argued that impeachment would be highly divisive, as indeed the Clinton impeachment was and the Trump impeachment inquiry has been thus far: "The prosecution of ... will seldom fail to agitate the passions of the whole community, and to divide it into parties more or less friendly or inimical to the accused. In many cases it will connect itself with the pre-existing factions, and will enlist all their animosities, partialities, influence, and interest on one side or on the other."
The example of the Clinton impeachment and the wisdom of Hamilton provide a reasonable basis for gauging how the likely Trump impeachment will end-House impeachment and Senate acquittal.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/impeachment-and-public-opinion-11574018773?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
Unlike the Nixon impeachment inquiry in 1973-74, the Clinton and Trump impeachment drives evoked an overwhelmingly strong partisan reaction.
By the time the Senate acquitted him on Feb. 12, 1999, his job approval was still a robust 65%. Republicans were convinced the impeachment spotlight shone on Mr. Clinton's behavior would change public opinion against him.
Instead, Mr. Clinton's job approval rating seemed to drive public disapproval of the impeachment proceedings.
At the end of the saga Mr. Clinton's job approval was 65% vs. 33% disapproval; opposition to impeachment was also 65% while support was 33%. What can that tell us about the likely course of support for President Trump's impeachment? According to the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, Mr. Trump's current job approval is 44%, with his disapproval at 54%. To the extent that the Clinton example is any guide, popular support for Mr. Trump's impeachment will end up in the mid-50s, with opposition settling in the mid-40s. Those numbers will likely vary dramatically among the states, as they do now.
He argued that impeachment would be highly divisive, as indeed the Clinton impeachment was and the Trump impeachment inquiry has been thus far: "The prosecution of ... will seldom fail to agitate the passions of the whole community, and to divide it into parties more or less friendly or inimical to the accused. In many cases it will connect itself with the pre-existing factions, and will enlist all their animosities, partialities, influence, and interest on one side or on the other."
The example of the Clinton impeachment and the wisdom of Hamilton provide a reasonable basis for gauging how the likely Trump impeachment will end-House impeachment and Senate acquittal.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/impeachment-and-public-opinion-11574018773?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
No comments:
Post a Comment