Monday, June 4, 2012

Why People Are Going Nuts Over The New George Soros Speech On Europe

People are going crazy for the new George Soros speech on Europe, which is available on at his official website.
We called it brilliant and a dynamo in our post on it yesterday.
The hedge funder who first passed it onto us called it "unbelievable."
One of our favorite China bloggers, the pseudonymous Also Sprach Analyst called it "The best thing ever written on the euro crisis."
The bottom line is that the speech is getting praised and passed around and going viral in a way that most speeches about the Eurozone don't.
So you have to ask: Why is this speech going nuts? Well there's a lot in it for people to like. He gives a nice roundhouse kick to the Germans, which is usually pretty popular. And he says that the Eurozone has 3 months to fix the crisis, which provides a perfect hook for headline-writers.
But what's special about the speech is his characterization of the Euro as being itself being a "bubble."
Now the word "bubble" gets abused a lot. Every little boom is called a bubble these days. And things that have nothing to do with market valuations (like the big pile of student loan debt being taken on) get called bubbles improperly.
But Soros is onto something here.
Let's back up for a second. A nagging question that we've had is: Why did it take so long for the Euro to go into crisis? This may seem like an absurd thing to say, since the common currency has barely been around longer than a decade. And yet that seems like a long time, given that from the moment each country gave up fiscal sovereignty, they relegated themselves to, as Paul Krugman has characterized it, the same fiscal status as a third world country, having to borrow in someone else's currency.
But markets ignored this fact for a long time.

No comments: