Saturday, November 3, 2012

(Un)Employment In Perspective

In Friday's final employment statistics release before the presidential election, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did manage to keep the "official" U-3 unemployment rate below 8 percent, but just barely.
The BLS reported the October 2012, U-3 unemployment rate at 7.9 percent. As Rick Moran says, "... the economy added a middling 171,000 jobs." (By the way, the U-3 unemployment rate among blacks is 14.3 percent, yet Obama's job approval rating among blacks is 91 percent.)
But the U-6 unemployment rate, which is 14.6 percent, includes people who are working part-time but are available for full-time work, as well as those who said they want to work but can't find a job (marginally attached), as well as the long-term unemployed (discouraged workers). The BLS publishes monthly U-1 through U-6 unemployment rates. So, with (at least) two unemployment rates from which to choose, and the fact that the unemployment rates don't begin to tell the complete economic story, some further perspective (information) is warranted.
Let's first examine long-term unemployment. The BLS categorizes anyone unemployed for more than six months (27 weeks) as long-term unemployed. The long-term unemployed presently comprise (seasonally adjusted) 40.6 percent of those unemployed, or 5,002,000 people. The percentage was 40.1 percent, or 4,844,000 people last month. The percentage has been above 40 since December 2009. Long-term unemployment has remained above 5 million people (except September 2012) since August 2009. These figures suggest that the U.S. economy is not creating enough jobs to hire the long-term unemployed, that weak jobs growth is only enough to keep up with population growth.

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