The ongoing conflict and reconstruction efforts in Gaza post-war raise critical questions about who will truly benefit from the substantial financial investments being made. A key player appears to be Hamas, a group that has maintained control over the region despite the formation of the Palestinian National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). This summary outlines the dynamics between Hamas, the NCAG, and the implications of the upcoming investments.
1. Hamas's Control and Strategic Positioning:
• Although Hamas has expressed willingness to transfer some governance roles to the NCAG, evidence suggests they seek to manipulate this body to retain their influence.
• Reports indicate Hamas pressures the NCAG to include its members in police forces and keep its civil servants on payroll, highlighting its desire to maintain operational control in Gaza.
2. Formation of the NCAG:
• Established as part of a U. S.-backed plan following the Israel-Hamas conflict ignited by the October 2023 attacks, the NCAG is envisioned to manage day-to-day governance.
• Led by Ali Shaath from the Fatah faction, the NCAG faces the challenge of operating where Hamas still holds significant power and influence.
3. Investment and Reconstruction Challenge:
• The billions of dollars earmarked for Gaza's reconstruction following the conflict are likely to disproportionately benefit Hamas, which has not disarmed nor relinquished control.
• Despite appearances of governance by the NCAG, Hamas is positioned to control the narrative and leverage any financial aid for its own military and operational benefits.
4. Hamas's Continued Authority:
• Recent reports indicate that Hamas is reasserting control over security and local governance functions, contradicting their claims of readiness to hand over power.
• Observations from activists reveal that Hamas is actively engaged in law enforcement, tax collection, and maintaining judicial oversight, reflecting the group's entrenched presence.
5. Realities of Governance in Gaza:
• The belief that the NCAG could operate independently from Hamas is questioned. Analysts indicate that true power remains with those who hold military influence, casting doubt on the effectiveness of the upcoming governance changes.
• As Hamas retains its organizational and ideological dominance, the NCAG's ability to implement effective policies will be severely hampered.
6. Hamas's Long-term Plans:
• By allowing a civilian body to manage administrative tasks while still controlling military operations, Hamas seeks to navigate potential international scrutiny and continue its agenda.
• The analogy drawn to Hezbollah in Lebanon illustrates fears that Hamas aims to establish a similar 'state within a state' model where it operates independently while feigning compliance.
The dynamics at play in Gaza, particularly the intersection of Hamas and the newly established NCAG, suggest that Hamas is poised to be the primary beneficiary of the billions allocated for reconstruction. With no genuine relinquishment of power and actual governance remaining under their influence, the envisioned outcomes of peace and demilitarization appear increasingly unlikely. The future effectiveness of Gaza's governance and stabilization efforts is thus intimately linked to Hamas's actions and its pivotal role in this ongoing saga.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22299/hamas-beneficiary-billions-of-dollars
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