India Builds a Fossil Future One Coal Plant at a Time

India is navigating the complex landscape of energy needs and climate commitments by expanding its fossil fuel infrastructure while maintaining a facade of commitment to climate initiatives. This summary focuses on India's energy strategy, particularly its increased reliance on coal, and its implications for global energy dynamics.

1. Fossil Future Argument:

• Alex Epstein, in his book "Fossil Future," argues that coal, oil, and natural gas are essential for human prosperity.

• Despite initial pledges to cut fossil fuel use, major companies and governments are now reconsidering due to economic realities.

2. India's Net Zero Commitment:

• India has pushed back its goal for achieving net zero emissions to 2070.

• The country is actively increasing its coal power capacity, planning to expand by 46% by 2035.

3. Coal Expansion:

• Contracts for coal supply are being signed, contradicting earlier claims of a decline in coal usage by 2030.

• Projections for peak coal generation in India have also been extended to the 2040s.

4. US-India Energy Trade:

• Bilateral hydrocarbon trade between India and the US reached nearly $14 billion in fiscal year 2025.

• India is seeking to secure investments in US liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects to diversify its energy sources.

5. Domestic Oil Exploration:

• India is pursuing oil exploration domestically, specifically in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, while US companies are increasing their involvement in India's oil sector.

6. European Energy Needs:

• European countries, facing their own energy challenges, are also turning to India for refined petroleum products, outsourcing their emissions.

7. US Opportunities:

• The US has the potential to play a significant role in India's energy transition by providing resources and technology for cleaner fossil fuel use.

India's pragmatic approach to energy, prioritizing fossil fuels while engaging in international climate agreements, illustrates a complex relationship between energy security and climate action. As fossil fuel production expands alongside commitments to reduce emissions, the global energy landscape may shift significantly, influenced by burgeoning markets like India's that are seeking reliable and affordable energy sources. 

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