Against the backdrop of current global energy production by fuel type, and as quantified in Part One, against a goal of increasing total energy production from 600 exajoules in 2022 to at least 1,000 exajoules by 2050, where does COP 28's goals put the world's energy economy? How much will production of renewable energy have to increase?
When measuring how much the base of renewables installed so far will contribute to the target of 1,000 exajoules of energy production per year in order to realize-best-case scenario-800 exajoules of energy services, the data reported in the Statistical Review of Global Energy is profoundly misleading.
If we're setting a goal of 1,000 exajoules of ultimate world energy production and assuming 80 percent of that 1,000 exajoules of energy input shall be realized as end-user energy services, then we have to examine how much usable energy wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear are actually being generated today.
Even if those other non-thermal sources of energy were to increase two to three times, without coal, oil, and gas, a stupefying expansion of wind and solar would be required.
Confronted with these facts, even the most enthusiastic proponents of wind and solar energy may hesitate when considering the magnitude of the task.
The uptick in mining, the land consumed, the expansion of transmission lines, the necessity for a staggering quantity of electricity storage assets to balance these intermittent sources, the vulnerability of wind and solar farms to weather events including deep freezes, tornadoes, and hail, and the stupefying task of doing it all over again every 20-30 years as the wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, and storage batteries reach the end of their useful lives-all of this suggests procuring 90+ percent of global energy from wind and solar energy is a fool's errand.
If coal, oil, and gas are phased out and it is unrealistic to expect nearly 1,000 exajoules of power to be delivered by wind and solar-generated electricity, what's left? Part three of this series will examine the potential of the remaining energy alternatives-nuclear, hydroelectric, biofuel, geothermal-along with possible innovations that someday may change the rules.
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