For decades we've heard that China will some day, very soon, be the world's hegemon, both through its stunning economic growth and its rising military might.
Google "The China Century" and you get 1 billion hits.
In recent years, China has entered a kind of doom loop of debt accumulation, population shrinkage and a productivity slowdown that is eroding its once powerful economic growth and threatens to halt many of the economic advances it made over the last 50 years.
"For decades," as the Wall Street Journal wrote this week, "China powered its economy by investing in factories, skyscrapers and roads. The model sparked an extraordinary period of growth that lifted China out of poverty and turned it into a global giant whose export prowess washed across the globe."
As I&I wrote in 2019, it was pretty clear nearly a decade ago that something was amiss in China and fears that Beijing would soon be the master of the universe were, well, overblown.
As we wrote even further back in 2014 when the world was still full of China triumphalism: "Not only has China not passed the U.S., but it's quite possible it never will. China's population growth is heading for a dramatic Japan-style collapse, which will slash economic growth in coming years. Growth has already slowed from 10% a year in the 1990s and 2000s to 7% - and it's likely to fall further from there."
In the past, economists have estimated that China has to grow its economy by 5% to 6% a year just to pay its debts.
https://issuesinsights.com/2023/08/25/the-china-century-is-over/
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