Friday, October 28, 2022

Why New GDP Report Showing Economic Growth Is Misleading

 The U.S. economy grew by 2.6% in the third quarter of 2022

  • Compared with the second quarter, which showed the economy shrunk 0.6%, that appears to be solid economic growth. Not quite- according to EJ Antoni, a research fellow in regional economics in the Center for Data Analysis at The Heritage Foundation.
  • Usually, when we talk about these numbers, we always think a growing GDP means a growing economy, and that's good for people, but this is one of those instances where that's not really the case
  • GDP is composed of four different things
  • Consumer spending
  • Business investment
  • Government
  • Net exports
  • All the growth came from the last category, net exports, because Americans were literally poorer and could afford fewer imports
  • Predictions for future GDP reports
  • Generally, generally we've heard about a recession, but not this time

Predictions for the future

  • From here on out, we will go back to negative numbers, and the key reason for that is because the dollar is getting so strong relative to other currencies.
  • exports will be more expensive, and we will export less, so the only thing that is really a large positive contributor to GDP at this point is going to go away.

Aschieris: I want to ask about President [Joe] Biden's comments on Thursday about the GDP report.

  • Biden said, "For months doomsayers have been arguing that the U.S. economy is in a recession and congressional Republicans have been rooting for a downturn."
  • Today, on Thursday, we got further evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward. Today's, Thursday's, data shows that in the third quarter, Americans' incomes were up and price increases in the economy came down."

Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Plan

  • Biden claimed during an interview with NotThis News that his student loan forgiveness plan was backed by congressional support.
  • The bill was challenged by Republican colleagues in Congress, but it is now in effect as Biden signed it into law.

Biden used executive action for this plan

  • It wasn't signed into law and Congress did not vote on it
  • The 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily halted the plan about a week ago
  • If this plan does move forward, what impact would it have on the economy?

Impact on the economy:

  • More spending, more money that the government doesn't have that will have to be covered by the Federal Reserve, which means more printed cash out there in the economy, which is more inflation.
  • College grads are the only group whose wages have risen faster than inflation, and yet they are the ones we're going to give all this money to?

Antoni: Well, No. 1, it's a classic case of robbing Peter to pay Paul

  • Even if you're one of the people who get relief from this, you're still going to pay for it in your taxes
  • And you might make the argument, "Well, I'll pay less in taxes than I'll actually get from this."
  • Until the next generation comes around and they demand the exact same handout that you got and now what?

The middle and working classes are getting absolutely crushed

  • The average earner has lost $3,000 in annual income since Biden took office
  • For a typical family with two parents working, that's a $6,000 loss
  • Add on another $1,200 in increased borrowing costs on average, because interest rates have gone up
  • If you compare someone trying to buy a home today to when Biden first took office, the median-priced home would cost $300,000 more, on average

https://www.dailysignal.com/2022/10/28/why-new-gdp-report-showing-economic-growth-is-misleading/

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