Last week, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid made a striking observation, one which threw all coronavirus comparisons to the Spanish Flu, and the coming second wave of the pandemic, in for a loop.
The death rate from pneumonia and influenza that year among 25-34 year olds in the United States was more than 50% higher than that for 65-74 year olds, "a remarkable difference to Covid-19.".
Now, in a follow up observation from Reid, the DB credit strategist points out another coronavirus peculiarity: the fact that the virus leads to virtually no fatalities of people below 45.
Given the scale of these numbers, Reid points out a "Remarkable fact" that among those aged under around 40, deaths have been roughly the same as for the previous 5-year baseline.
It's not just the UK: in Sweden, where there was no lockdown, huge international criticism of its strategy, and one of the highest fatalities per head in the world - only 70 people under 49 years old have died of Covid-19, out of 5,482 total virus deaths so far.
While the coronavirus has lead to virtually no excess deaths in younger age cohorts, it is the younger strata of society that are the most impact by the economic shutdowns that have resulted in tens of millions of unemployed Millennials.
As Reid provocatively puts it, "Younger people will be suffering most from the economic impact of Covid-19 for many years to come, we wonder how history will judge the global response." That said, since the economic crisis resulting from Covid-19 has also unleashed full-blown helicopter money as well as the biggest round of corporate bailouts of insolvent and zombie companies in history, we are confident that the tsunami of global moral hazard - which will leave tens of millions of young workers without a job - will allow central bankers to sleep soundly at night.
The death rate from pneumonia and influenza that year among 25-34 year olds in the United States was more than 50% higher than that for 65-74 year olds, "a remarkable difference to Covid-19.".
Now, in a follow up observation from Reid, the DB credit strategist points out another coronavirus peculiarity: the fact that the virus leads to virtually no fatalities of people below 45.
Given the scale of these numbers, Reid points out a "Remarkable fact" that among those aged under around 40, deaths have been roughly the same as for the previous 5-year baseline.
It's not just the UK: in Sweden, where there was no lockdown, huge international criticism of its strategy, and one of the highest fatalities per head in the world - only 70 people under 49 years old have died of Covid-19, out of 5,482 total virus deaths so far.
While the coronavirus has lead to virtually no excess deaths in younger age cohorts, it is the younger strata of society that are the most impact by the economic shutdowns that have resulted in tens of millions of unemployed Millennials.
As Reid provocatively puts it, "Younger people will be suffering most from the economic impact of Covid-19 for many years to come, we wonder how history will judge the global response." That said, since the economic crisis resulting from Covid-19 has also unleashed full-blown helicopter money as well as the biggest round of corporate bailouts of insolvent and zombie companies in history, we are confident that the tsunami of global moral hazard - which will leave tens of millions of young workers without a job - will allow central bankers to sleep soundly at night.
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