Will the time come when we ask ourselves, “do I serve this wonderful
yellow corn for dinner, or do I need to save it for my gas tank?”
In his 1798 essay on the principles of population, English political economist Thomas Robert Malthus concluded that we humans are doomed to endure cycles of growth and massive famine as we outstrip our resources.
Subsequent economist earned their stripes discrediting his methodology, but numerous localized famines around the world have unfolded, more-or-less validating the patterns Malthus described.
Over time, the term, “Malthusian” has come to describe any gloomy scenario in which a population exceeds the means to feed them.
Today we find ourselves once again in a bit of a Malthusian dilemma. Consider the following news item:
“‘The worst drought in the American Midwest and the highest temperatures in a half-century are poised to trigger an imminent global food crisis,’ scientists at the New England Complex Systems Institute said Monday.
“NECSI has warned for months that misguided food-to-ethanol conversion programs and rampant commodity speculation have created a food price bubble, leading to an inevitable spike in prices by 2013.
“Now it appears the ‘crop shock’ will arrive even sooner due to drought, unless measures to curb ethanol production and rein in speculators are adopted immediately.
“‘This summer, the American breadbasket has suffered debilitating droughts and high temperatures, leading to soaring corn and wheat prices in anticipation of a poor harvest,’ said NECSI president [Yavni] Bar-Yam.
“‘We are on the verge of another crisis, the third in five years, and likely to be the worse yet, capable of causing new food riots and turmoil on a par with the Arab Spring.’”
In his 1798 essay on the principles of population, English political economist Thomas Robert Malthus concluded that we humans are doomed to endure cycles of growth and massive famine as we outstrip our resources.
Subsequent economist earned their stripes discrediting his methodology, but numerous localized famines around the world have unfolded, more-or-less validating the patterns Malthus described.
Over time, the term, “Malthusian” has come to describe any gloomy scenario in which a population exceeds the means to feed them.
Today we find ourselves once again in a bit of a Malthusian dilemma. Consider the following news item:
“‘The worst drought in the American Midwest and the highest temperatures in a half-century are poised to trigger an imminent global food crisis,’ scientists at the New England Complex Systems Institute said Monday.
“NECSI has warned for months that misguided food-to-ethanol conversion programs and rampant commodity speculation have created a food price bubble, leading to an inevitable spike in prices by 2013.
“Now it appears the ‘crop shock’ will arrive even sooner due to drought, unless measures to curb ethanol production and rein in speculators are adopted immediately.
“‘This summer, the American breadbasket has suffered debilitating droughts and high temperatures, leading to soaring corn and wheat prices in anticipation of a poor harvest,’ said NECSI president [Yavni] Bar-Yam.
“‘We are on the verge of another crisis, the third in five years, and likely to be the worse yet, capable of causing new food riots and turmoil on a par with the Arab Spring.’”
No comments:
Post a Comment