January Case-Shiller house price data comes out today.
Analysts expect a 3.8% annual drop, according to Briefing.com.
That's a little less worse than the 4% drop for December, but it's still weak. Note that all the housing data lately has been a bummer.
But there's a key thing to realize about Case-Shiller numbers, and that's that they're very lagged.
Calculated Risk wrote about this yesterday...
Analysts expect a 3.8% annual drop, according to Briefing.com.
That's a little less worse than the 4% drop for December, but it's still weak. Note that all the housing data lately has been a bummer.
But there's a key thing to realize about Case-Shiller numbers, and that's that they're very lagged.
Calculated Risk wrote about this yesterday...
But remember that the purchase agreement for a house that closed in November was probably signed in September or early October. So some portion of the Case-Shiller index will be for contract prices 6 or even 7 months ago!
Other house price indexes do a little better. CoreLogic uses a weighted 3 month average with the most recent month weighted the most – and they will release their February index next week, almost a month ahead of Case-Shiller. The LPS house price index is for just one month (not an average) and uses only closings (not recordings like other indexes that can add an additional lag).
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