Before the polls closed Saturday night in Louisiana, I made two safe predictions: First, that Rick Santorum would win big in the state's Republican presidential primary and second, that the media (specifically including Fox News) would "immediately provide the Team Mitt spin, minimizing the significance of Santorum victory."
The first prediction actually proved to be an underestimate. Santorum did not merely "win big" in Louisiana, he won huge, exceeding all expectations. The Real Clear Politics average of Louisiana polls had shown him leading Mitt Romney by 13 points, and early exit polls indicated a similar margin of victory. No polling, however, had suggested the possibility that Santorum would win a massive blowout and not even his most ardent supporter had dared to dream the former Pennsylvania senator could carry Louisiana with a 22-point margin of victory and 49 percent of the vote. Furthermore, as one of his state coordinators pointed out Saturday night, if Santorum had gotten about 4,000 more votes to reach 51 percent, he would have automatically gotten all the delegates at stake in the primary. Three non-competitive candidates -- former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann -- got a combined total of nearly 3,800 votes. Santorum was close to scoring a shutout against Romney, even without considering the 16 percent of the Louisiana vote captured by another non-competitive candidate, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.
Read more: http://spectator.org/archives/2012/03/26/the-politics-of-demoralization
The first prediction actually proved to be an underestimate. Santorum did not merely "win big" in Louisiana, he won huge, exceeding all expectations. The Real Clear Politics average of Louisiana polls had shown him leading Mitt Romney by 13 points, and early exit polls indicated a similar margin of victory. No polling, however, had suggested the possibility that Santorum would win a massive blowout and not even his most ardent supporter had dared to dream the former Pennsylvania senator could carry Louisiana with a 22-point margin of victory and 49 percent of the vote. Furthermore, as one of his state coordinators pointed out Saturday night, if Santorum had gotten about 4,000 more votes to reach 51 percent, he would have automatically gotten all the delegates at stake in the primary. Three non-competitive candidates -- former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann -- got a combined total of nearly 3,800 votes. Santorum was close to scoring a shutout against Romney, even without considering the 16 percent of the Louisiana vote captured by another non-competitive candidate, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.
Read more: http://spectator.org/archives/2012/03/26/the-politics-of-demoralization
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