All the Ukrainian Known Knowns

 There is a possibility of a ceasefire in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, as various leaders and analysts are starting to agree on how to end the war. This summary outlines the expected terms of peace negotiations, the dynamics between the involved parties, and reflects on the future of the situation.

1. Growing Consensus on Peace:

Western diplomats and military experts are leaning toward establishing a demilitarized zone (DMZ) along the Ukraine-Russia border through tough negotiations. This involves determining how far back Russian troops will have to retreat.

2. Ukraine's Military Limitations:

It is now widely acknowledged that Ukraine lacks the military power to reclaim territories such as Crimea and the Donbas, which Russia took in 2014 during the Obama administration. Efforts to recover these areas have not been pushed by any U. S. administration since then.

3. NATO Membership:

There is consensus that Ukraine will not join NATO, which will be used by Russia to justify its actions during the invasion. This understanding is accepted by many Ukrainians as well.

4. Challenges in Deterring Russia:

While Putin's military is currently weakened, he continues to seek to regain territory. Negotiations will likely be complex, with a proposed commercial corridor meant to discourage further Russian aggression.

5. Historical Casualties:

The ongoing conflict has caused significant casualties, with estimates of 1. 5 million Ukrainians and Russians dead, wounded, or missing. Western powers had unrealistic expectations of defeating Russia solely through military support for Ukraine.

6. Trump's Role in Diplomacy:

Trump faces criticism for his approach to diplomacy regarding Ukraine. However, it is pointed out that the Biden administration's strategy has not effectively worked toward ending the war either. The focus has often been on endless military support instead of a concrete end to hostilities.

7. Negotiation Dynamics:

As negotiations progress, any pressure from Trump on Ukraine for a ceasefire could lead to unfavorable actions from Putin, who may increase attacks. Trump would then need to balance demands from both parties effectively.

8. Future Misinformation:

Once peace is achieved, it is anticipated that there will be debates about credit for the settlement, with conflicting narratives likely to emerge around who played a crucial role in the ceasefire.

The prospect of a ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict involves complex negotiations and an acknowledgment that military solutions have not worked as expected. While various actors face criticism and challenges, there remains uncertainty about the future and how peace will ultimately be framed in public discussions.

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