The Wind Is Always Blowing Somewhere Fallacy

I use these data as a starting point for this analysis to explain why the fact that the wind is always blowing somewhere does not mean it can be used cost-effectively to replace dispatchable fossil-fired generating in an electric grid that relies on wind and solar as claimed by Dr. Howarth and others.

In the absence of offshore observed wind energy historical data, I assumed that the wind production would be increased by a five-percentile category from the onshore wind distributions.

In order to ensure reliability, wind capacity must be available at all hours but the wind capacities at the lower end of the distribution are unrealistic so a system dependent upon only wind energy is going to have to go wherever the wind is blowing.

For each percentile I calculated the available capacity at each percentile for on-shore and offshore wind, summed them, and listed the deficit if the sum was less than 9,026 MW. For this thought experiment, the projected wind resources can replace the fossil resources up to the 70th percentile if all the wind power can be dedicated just to New York City at the hour when 9,026 MW of wind capacity is needed in the City.

Because I believe that wind in all regions of a similar size to New York will exhibit the same wind distribution pattern, a key takeaway is that wind resources 500 miles away are insufficient to always provide support when power outside the NYCA is needed.

When NYCA wind levels are at the 50th percentile I presume that 1000 miles away the wind resource will be at the maximum level of 86%. Importantly, this assumption is the same as assuming there is no correlation between NYCA wind and 1000- mile wind.

The forgoing analysis confirms that the wind is indeed always blowing somewhere and that wind energy resources could replace the existing fossil generation in New York City as suggested by Howarth and others However, just because it is possible does not mean it is feasible. 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/24/the-wind-is-always-blowing-somewhere-fallacy/