12 Years to Disaster? How Climate Activists Distort the Evidence

The second sentence of that document reads, "Global warming is likely to reach 1.5 degrees C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate." The 12-year figure comes from subtracting the year of the report, 2018, from the earliest possible date of 1.5 degrees C warming, 2030.

Actual temperatures in 2030 will depend on whether warming speeds up or slows down, and also on whether the year is warmer or colder than the long-term trend.

Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies land-ocean temperature series that underpins most popular reporting about warming, global excess temperatures were 0 in January 1960 and 0.94 degrees C in December 2017.

So the Earth has to warm another 0.56 degrees C to reach 1.5 degrees C. Some fifth-grade math tells us that should happen in 34.55 years if warming continues at the same rate.

The figures reflect "Anthropogenic warming," or warming rooted in human activity.

Historically, warm periods are more prosperous than cold ones, and more people die in cold months than warm ones.

The 2030 date relies on huge uncertainty about how much global warming has been caused by humans-a factor of three between 0.1 degrees C per decade to 0.3 degrees C. But later the report cites studies that conclude, "Human-induced warming trends over the period 1905-2005" are "Indistinguishable from the corresponding total observed warming." If the latter claim is true, then we know the rate of anthropogenic warming, and it will hit 1.5 degrees C if the rate remains the same in more like 30 years than 12 years.

https://reason.com/video/2021/04/30/12-years-to-disaster-how-climate-activists-distort-the-evidence/