Laughable European forecasts

While I watch the news feeds out of Greece as the parliament votes on the future of … well … just about everything, I am once again reminded how highly optimistic and misguided economic assumptions have led, in part, to the situation we now see across Europe.  One of the places where you can witness the historical record of this is in the European Commissions economic forecasts which are available here.
Overnight the EC released its latest forecast on Europe’s economy which contained some large revisions to previously forecast data:

The short-term outlook for the EU economy remains fragile, but a gradual return to GDP growth is projected for 2013, with further strengthening in 2014.
On an annual basis, GDP is set to contract by 0.3% in the EU and 0.4% in the euro area in 2012. GDP growth for 2013 is projected at 0.4% in the EU and 0.1% in the euro area. Unemployment in the EU is expected to remain very high.
The large internal and external imbalances that built up in the pre-crisis years are being reduced, but this process continues to weigh on domestic demand in some countries, and economic activity diverges significantly across Member States. At the same time, competitiveness lost in the first decade of EMU in some Member States is being gradually restored, so that export growth is projected to increase progressively as global trade starts reaccelerating. Further progress in consolidating public finances is underpinning this rebalancing process.
The structural reforms undertaken should begin to bear fruit over the forecast period, while advancements in the EMU architecture continue to strengthen confidence. This should pave the way for a stronger and more evenly distributed expansion in 2014. GDP growth in 2014 is projected at 1.6% in the EU and 1.4% in the euro area.
Olli Rehn, Commission Vice-President for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro said: “Europe is going through a difficult process of macroeconomic rebalancing, which will still last for some time. Our projections point to a gradual improvement in Europe’s growth outlook from early next year. Major policy decisions have laid the foundations for strengthening confidence. Market stress has been reduced, but there is no room for complacency. Europe must continue to combine sound fiscal policies with structural reforms to create the conditions for sustainable growth to bring unemployment down from the current unacceptably high levels.”

Read more: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/11/laughable-european-forecasts/