Friday, October 26, 2012

US to Overtake Saudi Arabia? Skewing the Oil Stats

The headline-sweeping news led by the Associated Press this week to the effect that the US is poised to overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest producer of oil buries a few facts and lends an odd perspective to the situation.
But it’s great for the elections, and surely makes Americans feel optimistic about a future independent of foreign oil.
First, here’s the headline news.
•    US oil output is surging as an amazing pace thanks to high prices and new drilling methods
•    US production of liquid hydrocarbon production (including crude oil—and this is key) could rise 7% this year to nearly 11 million bpd on average
•    For four straight years, US oil production has been rising and 2012 has seen the biggest gains since 1951
•    Saudi Arabia produces around 11.6 million bpd—so look out, the US is catching up, fast
Here’s what’s buried, because it makes for a bulky headline and a less sexy story.
The fact that it would be somewhere around 2020, barring any dramatic events, that the US would overtake Saudi Arabia is not mentioned in most headlines, though one can come across it half way down the story. By 2020, US production could reach 13-15 million bpd. Saudi output is predicted to remain relatively even from now until 2017, after which there are no predictions.
Skewing the perspective somewhat is the fact that the US overtaking Saudi Arabia is not unprecedented. It’s happened before, specifically in 2002, when the Saudis responded to 9/11-inspired low oil prices and cut production.

Read more: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-to-Overtake-Saudi-Arabia-Skewing-the-Oil-Stats.html

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