In forecasting what the U.S. Congress will look like after the November 6 elections, Princeton University's Sam Wang is what his fellow analysts call an "outlier."
Wang, one of a dozen or so leading academics who use statistical data to forecast elections, says there is a 74 percent probability that the Democrats will gain the net 25 seats they need to take control of the 435-seat House of Representatives from the Republicans.
He cites President Barack Obama's recent rise in the polls, which Wang says could help other Democrats on House ballots. Wang says his estimate "suggests that in coming weeks, we might look for (congressional) district polls to move in the Democrats' direction."
Since Obama jumped to a significant lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney during the past two weeks, there has been an increasing chance that the presidential race could create a larger-than-expected ripple across the congressional elections in the Democrats' favor. That has triggered anxiety among Republicans and raised hopes among Democrats.
It remains a minority view, however.
The conventional wisdom in Washington is that on November 6, a politically divided nation is likely to reinstall a largely familiar cast of characters at each end of Pennsylvania Avenue: a Democratic president, a Republican-led House, and a Democratic-led Senate.
For all the turbulence of the last few years - including the rise of the conservative, compromise-resistant Tea Party movement and the resulting gridlock in Washington that led to historically low approval ratings for Congress, Americans are on course to keep most of the same people in charge, most analysts say.
Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/01/us-usa-campaign-congress-idUSBRE89004Z20121001
No comments:
Post a Comment