If you thought the first six months of the year were chock full of
weird weather events, just wait — according to climate scientists there
is an increasing likelihood that El Niño conditions
will soon develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño events, which
are characterized by an area of unusually warm sea surface temperatures
in the tropical Pacific Ocean, can have a huge influence on global
weather patterns. Its effects on the U.S. tend to peak during the
winter.
The U.S. has already had a record warm January-to-June period, and has already had two extremely rare heat waves this year, one in March and the other in mid-June to early July. Entering mid-summer, drought conditions are covering 56 percent of the lower 48 states, a record drought extent in the 21st century.
Depending where you're located, the prospect of a new El Niño event may be good news. The drought-parched Texas Panhandle, for example, tends to be wetter during El Niño years. It could also be decidedly unwelcome news — just ask residents of California who dealt with El Niño-related flooding in 2010.
El Niño is a natural source of climate variability, and typically occurs every three to seven years. The question of whether manmade global warming will influence El Niño cycles is an area of active research. One recent study does suggest, though, that global warming could intensify the effects of an El Niño episode, even if it doesn't influence its occurrence.
Citing factors such as warming ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, the Climate Prediction Center, which is part of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said on July 5 that there is a better than 50 percent chance that El Niño conditions will develop sometime between July and September.
Because of El Niño's effects on seasonal climate conditions, farmers and ranchers, ski area operators, water planners, hurricane forecasters, and many more closely monitor such El Niño forecasts.
Tony Barnston, chief forecaster for the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, which works with the Climate Prediction Center, said an El Niño event could help relieve the ongoing drought conditions in some areas, but potentially worsen the drought for others.
Read more: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-may-be-on-the-way-altering-weather-patterns/
The U.S. has already had a record warm January-to-June period, and has already had two extremely rare heat waves this year, one in March and the other in mid-June to early July. Entering mid-summer, drought conditions are covering 56 percent of the lower 48 states, a record drought extent in the 21st century.
Depending where you're located, the prospect of a new El Niño event may be good news. The drought-parched Texas Panhandle, for example, tends to be wetter during El Niño years. It could also be decidedly unwelcome news — just ask residents of California who dealt with El Niño-related flooding in 2010.
El Niño is a natural source of climate variability, and typically occurs every three to seven years. The question of whether manmade global warming will influence El Niño cycles is an area of active research. One recent study does suggest, though, that global warming could intensify the effects of an El Niño episode, even if it doesn't influence its occurrence.
Citing factors such as warming ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, the Climate Prediction Center, which is part of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said on July 5 that there is a better than 50 percent chance that El Niño conditions will develop sometime between July and September.
Because of El Niño's effects on seasonal climate conditions, farmers and ranchers, ski area operators, water planners, hurricane forecasters, and many more closely monitor such El Niño forecasts.
Tony Barnston, chief forecaster for the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, which works with the Climate Prediction Center, said an El Niño event could help relieve the ongoing drought conditions in some areas, but potentially worsen the drought for others.
Read more: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-may-be-on-the-way-altering-weather-patterns/
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