Weak global economic data and declining oil prices are likely to push
central banks to act this coming week, according to Societe Generale's
Michala Marcussen and her team.
The coming week will see key manufacturing reports from some of the largest global economies. China and the major euro area countries are expected to report declining PMI numbers, which reflected slowing manufacturing sectors.
Moreover, the U.S. June jobs report, which will be released on Friday, is expected to be mediocre at best.
In this environment here's what SocGen analysts expect out of four central banks next week:
Reserve Bank of Australia (July 3): 'RBA has done enough for now'
Monetary policy is likely to be eased further in Australia. After cuts in May and June, there is a 20 percent chance of 25 basis points (bps) cut in July. It's more likely that the next rate cut will be at the August meeting when the RBA has its new forecasts for the economy.
Given the 1.3 percent quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth in GDP driven by domestic demand, there is more of an upside risk to the RBA's 3 percent GDP forecast for 2012. "In short, we remain of the view that the market is too aggressive in pricing-in rate cuts in Australia."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/global-central-banks-monetary-policy-2012-6#ixzz1zMb63Aor
The coming week will see key manufacturing reports from some of the largest global economies. China and the major euro area countries are expected to report declining PMI numbers, which reflected slowing manufacturing sectors.
Moreover, the U.S. June jobs report, which will be released on Friday, is expected to be mediocre at best.
In this environment here's what SocGen analysts expect out of four central banks next week:
Reserve Bank of Australia (July 3): 'RBA has done enough for now'
Monetary policy is likely to be eased further in Australia. After cuts in May and June, there is a 20 percent chance of 25 basis points (bps) cut in July. It's more likely that the next rate cut will be at the August meeting when the RBA has its new forecasts for the economy.
Given the 1.3 percent quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth in GDP driven by domestic demand, there is more of an upside risk to the RBA's 3 percent GDP forecast for 2012. "In short, we remain of the view that the market is too aggressive in pricing-in rate cuts in Australia."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/global-central-banks-monetary-policy-2012-6#ixzz1zMb63Aor
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