They simply assume surface pH will continue to fall as growing atmospheric CO2 pumps more CO2 into surface waters.
Ocean pH drops from ~8.2 at the surface falling to 7.6 by 300-meter depth where respiration and decay of organic matter dominates, releasing CO2 and lowering pH. Observations show wherever that low pH subsurface waters upwell to the surface, surface pH declines.
Observed increases in upwelling since the Little Ice Age will have lowered today's surface pH. During the depth of the last Glacial Maximum, atmospheric CO2 dropped to 180 ppm as oceans accumulated 850 billion tons more CO2than observed in today's modern oceans.
Despite more CO2 entering the ocean, surface pH was 8.3.
As ocean upwelling increased during the shift to the current interglacial, more CO2 was released back to the atmosphere and surface pH fell to 8.1 between 8,000 and 10,000 years ago and that contradicted theory.
The upwelling of more ancient CO2 makes it impossible to accurately separate any effect of rising anthropogenic CO2.
Just as the separation of organic matter production by photosynthesis at the surface, from the decay of organic matter at depth results in lower pH at 300 meters, similarly the separation of organic matter production in upwelling zones from the decay of the matter transported towards the center of those gyres, can also lower gyre pH. The winds along the American west coast cause upwelling of low pH water containing high minerals and high CO2 that promotes abundant productivity.
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