During the same period, daily deaths leveled off and dipped slightly, and they should decline in February given the recent downward trend in daily new cases.
According to Worldometer's numbers, the nationwide seven-day average of new cases yesterday was about 163,000, down 36 percent from the average on January 11 but still more than four times the level recorded in mid-September.
Researchers at Harvard University's T.H. Chan School of Public Health found that "Deaths often occur 2-8 weeks after the onset of COVID-19 symptoms." That suggests the recent decline in daily new cases will be reflected in fewer daily deaths during the next month.
Did government-imposed restrictions help curb virus transmission? A comparison of California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered a new lockdown on December 3, and Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott has not imposed any new restrictions, does not provide much evidence that such measures make an important difference.
In California, the seven-day average of daily new cases has fallen by nearly half since January 13.
The seven-day average in California tripled between December 1 and December 22.
Despite taking a much stricter approach than Texas, California saw a bigger surge in cases, and that surge continued for weeks after Newsom's order.
Sunday, January 31, 2021
Should Legal Restrictions Get Credit for the Recent Decline in New COVID-19 Cases?
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