The last time the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury dipped below 2% was in 1941; just before (not just after), the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
If history rhymes, the recent 1.8% low might not have been caused just by a combination of Euro-refugees plus the interference of central banks; perhaps we are on the cusp of another blitz of Black Swan tail-risks potentially as devastating as World War II, or there again perhaps not?
This article is a continuation of a series started two years ago which correctly predicted the 10-Year was headed to below 3%. Back then that notion was a minority; some analysts were predicting more than 6% by 2012.
Read more: http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog3.php/2012/03/27/10-year-us-treasury-heading-for-6
If history rhymes, the recent 1.8% low might not have been caused just by a combination of Euro-refugees plus the interference of central banks; perhaps we are on the cusp of another blitz of Black Swan tail-risks potentially as devastating as World War II, or there again perhaps not?
This article is a continuation of a series started two years ago which correctly predicted the 10-Year was headed to below 3%. Back then that notion was a minority; some analysts were predicting more than 6% by 2012.
Follow up:
Now some of those same experts are saying less than 3% or thereabout will be around for a while; although it’s not crystal clear whether the theory behind the new idea is a spanking brand-new one, or if it’s the same one that predicted 6% or more, just dusted off a bit? Read more: http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog3.php/2012/03/27/10-year-us-treasury-heading-for-6
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