That Chinese PMI Number Was Seasonally Adjusted, And The Data Wasn't That Good

Joe Weisenthal

Last night, China posted a strong January PMI number, unexpectedly coming in above 50, and for now allaying fears of a hard landing.

But underneath the hood things weren't so pretty.

As Nomura notes, there seems to have been an unusual seasonal adjustment.

China’s official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly rebounded to 50.5 in January from 50.3 in December, much better than expected (Consensus: 49.6; Nomura: 49.0). The uptick may be partly due to an unusual seasonal adjustment. Since 2005 the PMI has shown a strong seasonal decline of 1.1 points on average in January (except for 2009). The accompanying press release indicates that the PMI this month was seasonally adjusted; an unusual move that may have contributed to the rebound.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nomura-that-chinese-pmi-number-was-seasonally-adjusted-and-the-data-wasnt-that-good-2012-2#ixzz1l7znGoPl