Friday, November 1, 2024

Fate of U.S. House, Senate remains too close to call ahead of Election Day

The prediction exchange market Polymarket shows a 55% chance Republicans control the House and an 83% chance Republicans control the Senate.

Notably, Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., is up for reelection, but his seat is currently classified as "Lean GOP." No Republican Senate seats are considered "Lean Democrat." Sens.

Rick Scott, R-Fla., and Deb Fischer, R-Neb., are doing better than the toss ups but not in "Safe" races, putting them as the Republicans in the "Lean Republican" races.

According to RCP, 42 races are in the toss-up category, 23 of them held by Democrats and 18 held by Republicans.

Trump is doing better with Hispanics and Black voters than other recent Republicans, which could help Republican candidates in some states depending on their demographics.

"Trump is holding his own in the presidential race, but he remains deeply unpopular in deep blue states like New York and California, where there are several Republican members fighting for their political lives," Williams, now at Targeted Victory, told The Center Square.

"And with a House that has got a 4-seat majority for Republicans, those districts could make the difference." "Trump is generally more problematic for down-ballot Republicans given where they are from he drives Democratic turnout, which could spell trouble for some Republicans in purple districts or blue states. "Now conversely, Harris is a drag for some Democrats," he continued. 

https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_2e89bb5a-97cc-11ef-a4c6-07d9dd317200.html

No comments: