Every Wednesday the Atlanta branch of the Federal Reserve System (the Atlanta “Fed”) releases its proprietary “nowcast” on how well the economy is doing. Every Wednesday for some time, that forecast has embarrassed mainstream economists who have subsequently been forced to drop their own forecasts as the economy continues to slow.
In February GDPNow projected that the U.S. economy would grow by 1.9 percent in 2015, far below the rosy estimates by mainstream economists. Two weeks ago GDPNow projected growth at 1.2 percent. On May 13, it dropped further, to just 0.7 percent.
Instead of a “backward” looking view, the Atlanta Fed’s indicator looks through the front window of the economy, noting 13 separate parts of the economy and updating them every week. As Patrick Higgins of the Atlanta Fed pointed out, the indicator’s record is very good: “The GDPNow model forecasts GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents.… [Its] forecasts are found to be more accurate than a number of statistical benchmarks since 2000.”
http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/markets/item/20906-atlanta-fed-drops-gdp-growth-estimate-to-under-one-percent
In February GDPNow projected that the U.S. economy would grow by 1.9 percent in 2015, far below the rosy estimates by mainstream economists. Two weeks ago GDPNow projected growth at 1.2 percent. On May 13, it dropped further, to just 0.7 percent.
Instead of a “backward” looking view, the Atlanta Fed’s indicator looks through the front window of the economy, noting 13 separate parts of the economy and updating them every week. As Patrick Higgins of the Atlanta Fed pointed out, the indicator’s record is very good: “The GDPNow model forecasts GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents.… [Its] forecasts are found to be more accurate than a number of statistical benchmarks since 2000.”
http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/markets/item/20906-atlanta-fed-drops-gdp-growth-estimate-to-under-one-percent
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