The Youth Exodus

By Reid Wilson

Spurred by President Obama's campaign, younger voters proved a decisive, and growing, segment of the electorate in 2008. They turned out at higher levels than they had in generations, giving Democrats wins in swing states that had been off the table for a generation or more.

This year, Democrats are again counting on those younger voters to help Obama win a second term. But a new study from a Tufts University political scientist suggests the Obama campaign is going to have to work hard to prevent those younger voters from disappearing.

The study, from Tufts' Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, shows more than 48,000 young adults between the ages of 18-25 dropped off voter rolls in North Carolina. More than 80 percent -- 39,000 -- of those younger voters were registered Democrats. That's devastating for a state Obama won by just 14,000 votes.

In Nevada, more than 50,000 18-24 year-olds have dropped off voter rolls since 2008, the study found. Democrats still hold a hefty voter registration advantage in the Silver State, but the drop-off has been steeper among Democratic voters than among Republicans.

"The state-specific data for young voters from both of these battleground states shows what can only be described as a profound loss of the registration advantage Democrats held during the 2008 election cycle," Peter Levine, the Center's director, said in a statement. "That decline is a warning sign for Barack Obama, since more than two-thirds of young voters supported the Obama/Biden ticket in 2008."

Turning out younger voters is going to be a key part of Obama's re-election campaign. In a meeting with reporters ealier this month, Obama manager Jim Messina said the campaign would aim to register and turn out millions of younger voters through Operation Vote, a project spearheaded inside Obama's Chicago headquarters. Messina estimated there are 8 million voters who have turned 18 since Obama won election.

"Their brothers and sisters started this whole thing, and they're going to finish it," Messina said.

But getting those voters out is more difficult than it may seem. The DNC pledged to spend $30 million to turn out these and other irregular voters in 2010, an effort that yielded decidedly mixed results. Turnout among younger voters fell off a cliff in 2010; voters between 18-29 made up 12 percent of the electorate, far below the 18 percent they made up in 2008 (Turnout among black and Hispanic voters was down measurably as well).

Early test runs in states like North Carolina, where Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx won re-election by a wide margin, and in pro-labor efforts in Wisconsin and Ohio have Obama's team confident they can rebuild the coalition that won the 2008 election. Four years ago, those younger irregular voters were the icing on the cake, boosting Obama's already-winning margin. This time around, older voters are more skeptical of Obama, and those younger voters may prove the difference between winning and losing.