The ongoing failure of talks concerning Iran’s nuclear weapons
program, most recently in Istanbul on July 3, is no surprise. This
latest negotiation charade between Iran and the Security Council’s five
permanent members plus Germany (P5+1) is the culmination of 10 years of
innumerable diplomatic endeavors. These efforts rested on the erroneous
premise that Iran could be talked out of its decades-long effort to
build deliverable nuclear weapons.
Now,
almost no one argues there is light at the end of the negotiation
tunnel. The most they hope for, especially President Obama, is that the
plain futility of diplomacy’s latest pretense will not lead Israel to
attack Iran’s nuclear program before our November 6 election. Obama
fears such an Israeli strike more than he fears Iran actually
fabricating nuclear weapons because of his dangerous misperception that a
nuclear Iran could be contained and deterred. Even worse, Iran fully
understands Obama’s thinking, and sees no reason to believe it will
change if he’s reelected.
We are well past the point where sanctions against Iran’s
nuclear program achieve more than making their proponents feel good
about “doing something.” They neither restrain Iran’s nuclear program
nor effectively advance the goal of replacing the mullahs with a regime
that would truly forswear nuclear weapons. Combined with material
assistance to Iran’s extensive opposition, sanctions could help
destabilize Tehran, but unfortunately both the Obama and Bush
administrations have failed on that score.
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