This election's X-factor may be a gift to Romney from the
mainstream media. It is the suppression of public expression of
support for him. However, while pre-election polls may not have
been fully recording it, Election Day may finally capture Romney's
true support level for the first time -- to Obama's ultimate
detriment.
If this theory of media-suppressed Romney support sounds unlikely, think again. The enormous fluidity of Independents' support has been the hallmark of the last two national elections.
In 2008, Obama carried Independents 51% to 43%, en route to a 6.3% popular vote victory margin over McCain. In 2010, Independents swung heavily rightward, carrying Republicans to a stunning victory.
Current polling shows Independents again favoring Republicans. According to a 10/31 CBS News/NYT, a 10/30 NPR, and a 10/30 Pew Research Center poll, Romney has an average 11% lead among Independents. This is the reason this race is so close.
Despite this clear lead among Independents, it is still quite possible their support of Romney is undercounted.
For one thing, evidence of an 11% Independent advantage for Romney is still well below 2010's Republican margin. For another, there is a logical reason why this is happening.
The media's fawning coverage of Obama from 2008 until today has always signaled their "correct choice" when it comes to candidates. It was not Hillary or McCain in 2008, and it assuredly is not Romney today.
Read more: http://spectator.org/archives/2012/11/02/media-favoritism-may-be-hurtin
If this theory of media-suppressed Romney support sounds unlikely, think again. The enormous fluidity of Independents' support has been the hallmark of the last two national elections.
In 2008, Obama carried Independents 51% to 43%, en route to a 6.3% popular vote victory margin over McCain. In 2010, Independents swung heavily rightward, carrying Republicans to a stunning victory.
Current polling shows Independents again favoring Republicans. According to a 10/31 CBS News/NYT, a 10/30 NPR, and a 10/30 Pew Research Center poll, Romney has an average 11% lead among Independents. This is the reason this race is so close.
Despite this clear lead among Independents, it is still quite possible their support of Romney is undercounted.
For one thing, evidence of an 11% Independent advantage for Romney is still well below 2010's Republican margin. For another, there is a logical reason why this is happening.
The media's fawning coverage of Obama from 2008 until today has always signaled their "correct choice" when it comes to candidates. It was not Hillary or McCain in 2008, and it assuredly is not Romney today.
Read more: http://spectator.org/archives/2012/11/02/media-favoritism-may-be-hurtin
No comments:
Post a Comment