Credibility is one of those intangible factors in international relations that can mean the difference between peace and war and victory or defeat. And right now, America's credibility under the Biden administration in the Indo-Pacific - especially the credibility of our extended nuclear guarantees in the Western Pacific - is in doubt.
Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan:
- South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is publicly promoting the idea that South Korea should develop its own nuclear deterrent
- Yoon wants the Biden administration to redeploy nuclear weapons in South Korea
- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe publicly called for Japan to consider hosting American nuclear weapons as a means to offset China's strategic and theater nuclear buildup
- American East Asia experts have suggested that both South Korea and Japan are now more receptive to an increased U.S. tactical nuclear posture in the Western Pacific
- There are growing concerns in Japan and South Korea over the United States' nuclear umbrella
Taiwan is likely to be the administration's next major test in the Western Pacific. If it fails that test, whatever remains of its credibility will vanish.
- This is after all an administration that miserably failed its first major foreign policy test in Afghanistan, has repeatedly "walked back" the tough-sounding remarks about Taiwan, and still clings to the decades-old failed policy of engagement-competition with China.
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