Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Why the U.S. Can't Afford a Green New Deal

The candidates have largely embraced the same policy focus: expanded entitlement spending to guarantee new welfare benefits.

Cutting the debt-GDP ratio to its 1957-2007 average within 25 years would require policymakers to permanently reduce spending or increase taxes by 3.8% of GDP, which amounts to about $800 billion, or 24% of federal revenue.

Warren has campaigned for two new wealth taxes that are estimated to increase federal revenue by about $210 billion annually.

Even if the US adopted all three of these new taxes, annual federal revenue would increase by at most $280 billion.

Yang's plan for a universal basic income is estimated to cost $3.8 trillion annually, and the Green New Deal would likely cost upwards of $6.6 trillion per year.

Public health care spending in the US has grown faster than private spending over the past 30 years, and other countries with publicly-funded health care systems have continued to see increases in expenditures as a share of GDP. An aging US population is likely to increase health care costs in the future, regardless of whether those costs are paid by government.

Instead of the Green New Deal, the federal government could adopt a revenue-neutral carbon tax to decrease emissions without exacerbating the fiscal imbalance.

https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/why-us-cant-afford-green-new-deal

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