Wednesday, October 8, 2025

The Forgotten Dry Run for Lockdown

The history of lockdowns, specifically examining a prior incident in 2009 during the H1N1 swine flu outbreak in Mexico. It presents the argument that the lockdown measures taken in 2020 were not unprecedented, and it critiques the narrative surrounding these actions.

1. The Covid-19 Lockdown Myth:

• The 2020 lockdowns were portrayed as a necessary response to an unknown and dangerous virus.

• Prime Minister Johnson stated there was "no alternative" to lockdowns, framing them as the only way to combat the pandemic.

2. Historical Precedent of Lockdowns:

• The H1N1 outbreak in 2009 saw an early form of lockdown in Mexico, where schools and businesses were closed in response to influenza cases.

• This previous event, involving Dr. Richard Hatchett, is often forgotten but is significant as it set a precedent for future lockdowns.

3. 2009 H1N1 Pandemic:

• The swine flu was first detected in California among children who had no severe illness but led to heightened caution from health officials.

• The CDC warned of the potential flu outbreak, and Mexico responded with a lockdown on April 24, 2009, after 16 deaths were reported.

4. Responses and Actions:

• The US government, under President Obama, quickly declared a national health emergency.

• The immediate focus was on how to secure funding for pandemic preparedness and to procure vaccines.

5. Economic Impact:

• The national lockdown resulted in economic losses estimated at $2.2 billion for Mexico.

• It also prompted Congress to fund vaccine development and stockpiling of antiviral drugs.

6. Lessons Learned:

• Dr. Hatchett emphasized the lessons learned from past pandemics, which informed the response to Covid-19.

• The lockdowns in 2020 were justified by past experiences, showing government reliance on control measures during health crises.

7. Funding and Research:

• Funding was requested and approved quickly to support vaccine development, similar to actions taken during the swine flu response.

• Dr. Hatchett highlighted that public health measures could only slow disease spread, thus emphasizing the importance of vaccine development.

8. Critique of Lockdown Effectiveness:

• The article questions whether the 2009 lockdown did anything substantial to prevent illness and whether similar measures in 2020 were effective.

• Historical outcomes reveal that despite large amounts spent on vaccine development, actual effectiveness and mortality rates raise doubts about the necessity of such aggressive responses.

9. Current Implications:

• There’s a clear call for reevaluation of how future pandemics will be approached, urging that we not forget the lessons from the past.

• The article suggests that examining the history of the 2009 swine flu emergency might provide better insights for handling future pandemics.

The historical review of the 2009 swine flu pandemic reveals that lockdowns have been utilized before and raises important questions about their necessity and effectiveness in 2020. As society prepares for future health crises, it is crucial to remember the lessons of past responses, ensuring that actions are well-informed by evidence rather than governed by fear. 

https://brownstone.org/articles/the-forgotten-dry-run-for-lockdown/

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