Above-normal sea surface temperatures continue this month across most of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, but there are signs that this El Nino episode which began about a year ago will flip to La Nina conditions by the early part of the 2024 summer season in the Northern Hemisphere.
A flip from El Nino to La Nino across the equatorial Pacific Ocean can have big implications on the upcoming 2024 Atlantic Basin tropical season.
This expected dramatic change in sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean may be a major contributor to a very active tropical season in the Atlantic Basin as atmospheric conditions are typically more favorable during La Nina episodes for the development and intensification of tropical storms.
Finally, as oceanic cycles play a critical role in global temperatures, a flip from El Nino to La Nina in the world's largest ocean could mean a return to closer-to-normal levels following a spike during the past year or so.
A transition from El Nino to ENSO-neutral is likely by spring 2024 and odds are increasing for a full-blown moderate-to-strong La Nina by the time we get to the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere which coincides with the first part of the Atlantic Basin tropical season.
In terms of an impact on the upcoming 2024 Atlantic Basin tropical season, La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean can be a critical contributing factor to what I fear could be a very active year in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
In addition to the favorable aspect for tropical activity helped along by La Nina conditions in the Pacific, the breeding grounds of the tropical Atlantic Ocean are currently featuring much warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and this pattern is likely to continue right into the summer season.
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