Wednesday, August 4, 2021

The Evidence Cited by the CDC Does Not Show That Vaccinated and Unvaccinated COVID-19 Carriers Are Equally Likely To Transmit the Virus

Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has sent mixed messages about the likelihood that people vaccinated against COVID-19 will be infected by the delta variant of the coronavirus.

"The breakthrough infections, as rare as they are, have the potential to forward transmit with the same capacity as an unvaccinated person," Walensky told reporters on July 27, the day the CDC issued new guidance recommending that vaccinated people resume wearing face masks in public places if they live in "Areas of substantial or high transmission." That statement contradicted a "Science brief" that the CDC published the same day.

"These findings, along with the early evidence for reduced viral load in vaccinated people who develop COVID-19, suggest that any associated transmission risk is likely to be substantially reduced in vaccinated people." The brief cited "Early data" from India and "Unpublished data" from the United States suggesting that "Breakthrough Delta infections are transmissible." But it did not say they were as transmissible as infections in unvaccinated people.

"High viral loads suggest an increased risk of transmission and raised concern that, unlike with other variants, vaccinated people infected with Delta can transmit the virus," she said.

Citing the Provincetown outbreak, she said the "Higher viral loads" associated with the delta variant "Are seen not just in those who are unvaccinated and infected but also, and importantly, in the small proportion of those who are vaccinated and become infected." She said that indicates "Vaccinated people can spread the virus if they get a breakthrough infection," although "The odds of them getting sick in the first place are far lower than those who are unvaccinated." In addition to the issue of inferring viral loads from Ct values, the Provincetown study has other limitations.

Since vaccinated people infected by the coronavirus tend to have milder symptoms, it seems plausible that they are, on average, less infectious than unvaccinated carriers.

The Washington Post reports that researchers "Are analyzing the genetic fingerprints of the virus samples" to "Trace chains of transmission and determine how commonly fully vaccinated people were infecting one another." A preprint study from Singapore, which was posted the day after the CDC's Provincetown study, suggests that Walensky was right to retreat from her suggestion that vaccinated and unvaccinated people infected by the delta variant are equally likely to transmit it.

https://reason.com/2021/08/04/the-evidence-cited-by-the-cdc-does-not-show-that-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-covid-19-carriers-are-equally-likely-to-transmit-the-virus/ 

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