Thursday, July 15, 2021

Economic Nonsense is Extremely Well Anchored in Fantasyland, and Not Just at the Fed

Mish: Not long ago, economists thought that 5% unemployment was about as low as it could get without boosting inflation.

Powell: Inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating.

Inflation is being temporarily boosted by base effects, as the sharp pandemic-related price declines from last spring drop out of the 12-month calculation.

Powell: To avoid sustained periods of unusually low or high inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee's monetary policy framework seeks longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent, the Committee's longer-run inflation objective.

Measures of longer-term inflation expectations have moved up from their pandemic lows and are in a range that is broadly consistent with the FOMC's longer-run inflation goal.

Inflation expectations hit the 5% level by averages and by single-point predictions, at 4.8% and 5.48% respectively.

Tax on the Poor Inflation is best thought of as a tax on the poor and anyone who does not hold assets.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/economic-nonsense-is-extremely-well-anchored-in-fantasyland-and-not-just-at-the-fed 

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