Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Blain: "What A Complete ClusterF**k"

We are more than used to dealing with Argentina defaults But, its far more complex than that.

The latest Argentina Dance Macabre is all about Global Credibility.

Macri won a mere 32% of the vote, while former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner won 47%. Don't Cry for Me Argentina indeed Domestic Argentine Politics have left the IMF looking stupid.

The programme did achieve some minor success: bringing down Argentina's primary deficit and putting the trade balance in to surplus - but only because they spent IMF money supporting the peso.

If Lagarde thinks Argentina's economic situation is complex, wait till she tries to balance the ECB. Her job is not to simply continue the "Do-what-ever-it-takes" Mario Draghi "Keep-the-Euro-going" mantras, but to actually move the European economy forward in a political vacuum.

There are clear parallels between Argentina and Europe - much to be learnt in how not to handle recovery in the face of populism and undeliverable political promises.

The third point to learnt from the new Argentina crisis is who leads the IMF now that Legarde is off to Frankfurt?


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-13/blain-what-complete-clusterfk

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