The latest confirmation that global trade is suffering its gloomiest period since the financial crisis came overnight from Asia, where first global trade hub Singapore delivered some shockingly bad news about the state of its economy, followed shortly by the latest disappointing Chinese exports report.
Separately, in the second blow to global trade - and the latest confirmation that China will be forced to engage in even more aggressive stimulus - Beijing's latest trade figures showed exports fell 1.3% in June from a year ago and imports shrank a more-than-expected 7.3%. Exports were in line with consensus expectations, with imports slightly weaker.
7bn in May. The main culprit for the latest disappointin data? Exports to the US contracted significantly by 7.8% yoy in June, down further from -4.1% yoy in May. Exports to the EU also decelerated to a decline of 3% yoy in June from +6.1% yoy in May, and exports to Japan increased modestly by 2.4% yoy.
In contrast, exports to ASEAN accelerated significantly to +12.9% yoy in June from +3.5% yoy in May. Meanwhile, on the other side, imports of crude oil accelerated in June, while imports of steel products remained weak.
In value terms, crude oil imports accelerated to +8.2% yoy in June; steel products imports declined by 19.5% yoy in June; iron ore imports increased +34.6% yoy in June.
In volume terms, crude oil imports were up by 15.2% yoy in June; steel products imports remained weak at 9.1% yoy in June; iron ore imports decreased by 9.7% yoy in June.
According to Goldman, "Weaker global demand, higher tariffs from the US and smaller impacts from the frontloading may have contributed to the slowdown in exports momentum in June, though depreciation in RMB over the past several months may have been supportive." As a result Goldman believes that exports momentum may remain modest in coming months, given moderate global economic growth, and combined with weak private demand, will result in easier domestic policy to maintain growth stability.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-12/i-thought-numbers-would-be-bad-ugly-singapore-economy-unexpectedly-tumbles-chinese
Separately, in the second blow to global trade - and the latest confirmation that China will be forced to engage in even more aggressive stimulus - Beijing's latest trade figures showed exports fell 1.3% in June from a year ago and imports shrank a more-than-expected 7.3%. Exports were in line with consensus expectations, with imports slightly weaker.
7bn in May. The main culprit for the latest disappointin data? Exports to the US contracted significantly by 7.8% yoy in June, down further from -4.1% yoy in May. Exports to the EU also decelerated to a decline of 3% yoy in June from +6.1% yoy in May, and exports to Japan increased modestly by 2.4% yoy.
In contrast, exports to ASEAN accelerated significantly to +12.9% yoy in June from +3.5% yoy in May. Meanwhile, on the other side, imports of crude oil accelerated in June, while imports of steel products remained weak.
In value terms, crude oil imports accelerated to +8.2% yoy in June; steel products imports declined by 19.5% yoy in June; iron ore imports increased +34.6% yoy in June.
In volume terms, crude oil imports were up by 15.2% yoy in June; steel products imports remained weak at 9.1% yoy in June; iron ore imports decreased by 9.7% yoy in June.
According to Goldman, "Weaker global demand, higher tariffs from the US and smaller impacts from the frontloading may have contributed to the slowdown in exports momentum in June, though depreciation in RMB over the past several months may have been supportive." As a result Goldman believes that exports momentum may remain modest in coming months, given moderate global economic growth, and combined with weak private demand, will result in easier domestic policy to maintain growth stability.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-12/i-thought-numbers-would-be-bad-ugly-singapore-economy-unexpectedly-tumbles-chinese
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