Sunday, May 19, 2019

China Has Already Lost the Trade War

The basic structural political differences between the United States and China seem to make a trade conflict inevitable.

China views commercial relations with other countries as an extension of the political conflict between Western democracies and itself-that is, an extension of war.

Despite the rhetoric and hand wringing from the American mainstream media, the prospect of cooler trade relations with China may provide the United States with an opportunity to expand ties with other Asian nations, such as Vietnam and India.

If trade war with China becomes a permanent part of the American political landscape and the Trump tariffs remain in place, who loses? The direct losses will be borne by the importers, who will then pass those higher prices along to customers.

Another aspect of the trade dispute is the idea of a "Nuclear option," whereby China would sell its holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency securities to cause a "Collapse" of the dollar.

The truth is that China really has very few options to retaliate against the trade sanctions imposed by the Trump administration.

"And that is why the trade war will not happen. Because China has already lost it. China cannot win a trade war with high debt, capital controls and U.S. exports' dependence. A massive Yuan devaluation and domino defaults would cripple the economy."


https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/china-has-already-lost-the-trade-war/

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