Friday, April 5, 2019

March Payrolls Preview: Expect A Sharp Rebound

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to revert to a more trend-like pace in March, following the sub-par Feb data.

CHALLENGER JOB CUTS: US employers are planning to cut 60,587 jobs from payrolls in March, Challenger reported, -21% M/M. Challenger also notes that in Q1 as a whole, job cuts were up 10.3% Q/Q and +35.6% higher than Q1 2018.

While business survey headline indices were mixed-to-weaker in March , the employment components of both the services and manufacturing employment trackers generally increased.

Taken together, business surveys suggest a solid rebound in job growth in March, but with an underlying pace somewhat below what was seen in mid-2018.

ADP. The payroll-processing firm ADP reported a 129k increase in March private payroll employment-46k below consensus and well below the +214k average pace over the prior six months.

The March ADP report suggests that the underlying pace of job growth is moderating, though some of the weakness probably reflects a mechanical drag from prior-month nonfarm payroll growth.

Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas declined by 11k in March to 55k. Announced job cuts in March are slightly below their March 2018 level.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-04/march-payrolls-preview-expect-sharp-rebound

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