Friday, February 1, 2019

Global Poverty Decline Denialism

So what do the "Real data" on poverty tell us? Starting with that $1.90-per-day measurement, the level of extreme poverty fell from 42.2 percent of the world's population in 1981 to 8.6 percent in 2018.

In this case, the researchers used the World Bank's extreme poverty threshold, measured as living on less than $1 per day in 1985 dollars, and reported that it "Fell from 84 percent of the world population in 1820 to 24 percent in 1992." Measured as living on less than $2 per day in 1985 dollars, they calculated a 94 percent poverty rate in 1820.

"World economic growth, though strongly inegalitarian, contributed to a steady decline in the headcount measure of poverty throughout the period under analysis," the researchers report.

"Over the 172 years considered here, the mean income of world inhabitants increased by a factor of 7.6. The mean income of the bottom 20 percent increased only by a factor of slightly more than 3, that of the bottom 60 percent by about 4, and that of the top decile by almost 10." In other words, as a global average, the rich got richer faster than the poorest folk did, but the circumstances of both improved significantly.

The Our World in Data chart cited by Gates notes that the global child mortality rate declined from 43 percent in 1800 to 4.3 percent now.

A 2007 review article of life trajectories of various subsistence society groups found that "On average 57 percent, 64 percent, and 67 percent of children born survive to age 15 years among hunter-gatherers, forager-horticulturalists, and acculturated hunter-gatherers."

The 2007 review article finds that "Among traditional hunter-gatherers, the average life expectancy at birth varies from 21 to 37 years, the proportion surviving to age 45 varies between 26 percent and 43 percent, and life expectancy at age 45 varies from 14 to 24 years." That's essentially the same range as global life expectancy in 1800.

http://reason.com/blog/2019/01/31/global-poverty-decline-denialism

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