Monday, April 27, 2020

Covid-19: Not Nearly As Dangerous As You Think

The probability of dying from the virus in the US is very low: 1.5 out of 10,000.

The death rate attributed to Covid-19 in the US, which has placed increasing restrictions on people, is about the same as the death rate in Sweden, 2.0 out of 10,000, which has placed very limited restrictions on people.

Probability of Dying from Covid-19 in the U.S. The number of deaths from the virus in the US is 50,988.

The probability of dying from the virus in the U.S. is equal to the number of deaths divided by the U.S. population: 50,988/329,064,917 = 0.00015 = 0.015% = 1.5 chances out of 10,000 - a very, very low probability.

When you take into account that most of the deaths from Covid-19 were of older people with underlying medical issues, the chance of younger, healthy individuals dying from the virus is much, much lower - probably 1.5 chances out of 100,000.

Sweden has had 2,152 deaths out of a population of 10.12 million, so the probability of dying from the virus in Sweden is about 0.02% = 2 chances out of 10,000; very low and not much different than the US death rate.

If you're over 55 or have serious health issues, there is a greater risk of dying from Covid-19 than if you're under 55 and are in generally good health.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/04/covid-19-not-nearly-dangerous-you-think-robert-j-shillman-phd/

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